Who wins 2020? Predictions for every single Election & Key Races

Who wins 2020? Predictions for every single Election & Key Races

What American politics will appear like after 2020 is anybody’s guess. But we’re taking our best shot.

Presenting POLITICO’s 2020 Election Forecast: scores for every national contest, from all 538 votes in the Electoral College, down to the 435 Home districts– and whatever in between.

We’ll be updating our ranking throughout the year. Some bottom lines from our newest predictions:

  • In the race for the White Home, President Donald Trump can lose approximately 36 electoral votes and still win. But his low approval ratings make this race a toss-up.

  • In the Senate, Democrats will have a hard time clawing back the four Senate seats they need for bulk control.

  • In the House, strong fundraising and a brand-new congressional map in North Carolina suggest Democrats will likely hold their bulk.

The rankings are the item of a strenuous procedure, evaluating election results, registration patterns, the nationwide environment, public ballot and private study data. They likewise reflect conversations with dozens of project operatives, pollsters and other sources.

They’re provided on a seven-point scale: Races that are “strong” for each party are essentially secured. Those favoring one celebration are rated as “likely” or “lean,” depending upon the strength of the celebration’s advantage. Contests in which one celebration does not hold a significant edge are ranked as “toss-ups.”

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